I doubt it.
He's not an idiot.
He's playing to the public opinion in Russia but he won't do it at all costs.
Point 1 - Agreed. But that's not to say he isn't unbalanced and won't paint himself into a corner or too. There are plenty of pressures on him at home, and quite frankly - if as state controller of the media and chief punishment monitor for all things "anti-Russian" (read Putin) you can't get an 80% approval rating then you are not much of a dictator are you? And it takes effort to control a state the size of Russia if you are herding it in a direction some of it doesn't want to go.
Point 2 - He will do it at all costs - eventually, unless his own people stop him. To men like Putin there is no difference in killing 1 person, 100 people or many millions. History has shown us what his ilk will do and history has shown us what appeasement and disarmament in the face of it achieves.
As for trying it on in the Baltics - why not? There are pro-Russian elements there and with a little creative thinking, there are anti Western groups dotted all over Europe and, indeed the UK. I don't think we will see massed squadrons of Russian tanks headed our way soon (too easy to destroy with something big), but that's not the way anymore, is it?.