FDF
Always good to see your postings.
Given the high estimation of such a substantial handling cost per passenger to cover costs who would provide the "additional" connectivity to those "unserved" UK domestic destinations ?
Clearly we are looking into a crystal ball 20 years hence but establishing what might happen on current events, is the enormous timescale not a major part of the problem ?
Based on the "here and now" only Flybe a "LoCost" airline would appear to have the equipment, would they contemplate entering this market having just exited LGW for similar reasons.
With little appetite from BA to expand outside the current markets of MAN,GLA EDI etc etc all of which sufficient high frequency OR is part of the thinking to provide frequencies every 30 mins which to me at least seems wholly unneccessary, it begs the Q who steps in ?
Thankyou Bagso.
Good question! Hard question!
Think you’re correct about BE. For the thin domestic routes it would be ideal as it has the experience and the right aircraft. Perhaps it’s desire for a base at NHT is with an eye on future LHR operations(?).
As for the high airport charges, these will be known about and be accounted for, not suddenly introduced once the operation is already up and running as at LGW.
On the no-frills front, U2 has made it clear in its evidence to Davis that it would create a network of about 30 routes (UK and European) at an expanded LHR, which makes sense now that it is chasing business pax. It also supports a new rwy there rather than at LGW.
The critical difference between LGW and LHR is the availability of connecting traffic. BE’s LGW operation was point to point and the steep increase in charges made this untenable. LHR routes would be point to point
and feeder (perhaps with an arrangement feeding BA/one world longhaul?), hence the potential viability despite high airport charges.
As for U2, it is more likely to be on the trunk routes, taking on BA and others. With the availability of free slots at an expanded LHR, could also see BD regional back at LHR (perhaps feeding star alliance longhaul) because of its previous LHR experience, but would not expect to see FR there.
The problems with LHR go away with expansion: delays and congestion, queues to take off, stacking before landing, etc., and new slots are free, no secondary slot market.
As for 20 years down the road, overcrowding and congestion and the prohibitively high cost of road and rail travel will make domestic air travel increasingly popular. The concept of taking a domestic flights is, at present, not even contemplated by most. That will change.
Pure speculation, of course. Feel free to pull it apart.