HEATHROW

[Bagso]

But there is a grave danger we are putting sentiment over the "Business Case" here.

There is much emotion which I fully understand;

"Britain needs a hub"
"We are falling behind"
"UK needs to keep pace"

BUT those who for want of a better term are "egging" things on from the back, STILL do not appear to be fully evaluating the two main areas of concern or indeed addressing them.

1) Cost
2) Timescales

I could understand the groundswell of opinion IF the costs were say comparable to the Manchester runway cost with a weighting of say 10 times and delivery of the project could be gauranteed within a timescale relevent to where we are today.

The problem is the costs even now are eye watering.

Whilst that is not relevent to me personally if they continue to escalate (Sorry Basil)I have this nagging nay legitimate fear that despite Basils assurance, HAL will infact execute a handbrake turn and be tugging vigourously at the coat tail of Westminster for some funds to redesign the periphery M25/Railways/Tunnels/ Flood Defences et al. This could amount 25% to 30% of what is already an extraordinary amount of money.

The timescales are also a major issue. If this project could be delivered in 5 to 10 years the economic case of today on which the development is based would be highly relevent, the problem is that we could be a generation away from delivery !

If we had a project which could be delivered on time in a reasonable timescale at a not unreasonable cost with a gaurantee of no penalty points to the taxpayer I would join the crusade but what we have on the table is an excrutiatingly high amount of cost coupled to timescales which are flaky to say the least !

Just a caveat re tax

I may be wrong but inbound transfer passengers , a substantial part of Heathrow passenger flows travelling from say the US and onto Europe pay no tax to the UK. Yes they contribute to airline costs, provide employment etc etc etc but I think I am correct in saying there is no benefit to the Exchequer. Again can we call on our resident number cruncher from Basil Associates to clarify the position ?

The service is free i'm afraid, you could not enforce a levy becuase you would then be at a passenger ticket disadavantage to other hubs, it is a frailty of the system that there is an inability to charge a "transfer fee" for using the service provided.

In addition although it is only small beer saddling LHR with a mountain of debt re 3rd RW is unlikely to mean there will be Corpration tax take for the next 30 years so whilst the country again might benefit in other areas Corporation tax is unlikely to be one of them.

Just out of interest if I was a shareholder at HAL would I seriously want to take on this national crusade or simply sit on my hands and take some juicy profits notwitstanding the 2014 results/loss ?

Interestingly the loss was blamed on an inability to provide capacity?
Can anybody explain how you can have such a premium product but seeming an inabilty to make money ?
I assumed the loss was down to terminal redevelopment costs but again maybe Basil could clarify ?