Thanks to all who posted feedback on my earlier remarks. Some follow-ups:
Turtlecontroller: Welcome back! I see that single-digit percentage growth equates to "imminent doom" over there in Troll-land. I'll keep that in mind :-)
LAX_LHR: Thought provoking posts, as always a good read. I suspect that our different interpretations of the outlook is a function of the respective ways in which we assess the data. You seem to base your conclusions on the breadth of operators and new route announcements; I tend to calculate and contrast the raw seat numbers from one season to the next.
Just a couple of points concerning Ryanair to explain why they are so crucial to this calculation. A single based RYR B738 operating an active summer programme of around 24 departures weekly (48 movements) represents around 9000 seats per week. Contrast this with the proposed Hainan Airlines service which we're all keeping our fingers tightly crossed for. An A332 configured with 222 seats offers 1776 seats per week based on 8 movements (4x Dep, 4x Arr). A bit more maths informs us that we require five new services on the scale of Hainan A/L to equal the raw weekly passenger throughput of a single based RYR B738. Now recall that we were hoping for three additional RYR units just weeks ago. Can you see where the damage to potential growth is coming from? New operators such as Hainan bring great prestige to MAN, but a based RYR B738 brings consistent high passenger volumes through the door.
By the way, sticking with Ryanair, they actually dropped two routes for S15 (Bremen 3x W, Trapani 2x W). Not a vast amount, but they all count. I believe we have a net gain of two routes from them.
I note your other point about alternative based units, and yes, I do take account of these (and celebrate their presence!). However, an aircraft such as the Enter Air B734(?) won't be used anything like as intensively as a RYR B738. Do you know how many MAN departures per week it will offer ... I understand its doing some 'W' patterns through BHX as well? Moving on to Jet2, and their additional based unit also offers much lower utilisation. And it appears that the proposed A333 programme will now revert to a B752 operation (botheration, I booked on that one as well!!!). Hopefully the additional based EasyJet will at least offer high utilisation. Thomas Cook and FlyBe utilisation ... discuss. Then slot handbacks have to be factored in, as well as late equipment changes (gains from incoming UAE A388, ADR A319 etc.; losses from dropped EXS A333, ETD B77W etc.).
I agree completely with your assertion that offering a broad range of carriers across all market segments is a very healthy thing for MAN. But that doesn't alter the maths discussed above. In summary, I'm not trying to make a "negative case". However, I do stand by my suggestion that we should not anticipate a "swashbuckling summer". My outlook calls for modest growth.
MANFOD: Hallelujah! Finally, one other regular poster 'gets it'! The critical role Ryanair represents in MAN's future growth prospects, that is. I'd rather hoped that more regulars here would be grasping the significance of the 'Ryanair factor'. And the importance of upgrading the short-term infrastructure needed to keep them growing at MAN. If Ryanair at MAN goes ex-growth we've got a huge problem.
North West: Posting seat comparisons would answer some questions as you say. But aren't we talking about privileged data?
Regards to all from 'The Usual Suspect'. (Nice ring to that name, don't you think?).