Of course (playing 'Devil's Advocate' here), there is always the possibility that MAG may not be too concerned by the medium-term capacity issues at T3 if Ryanair don't mind basing new additional frames at another in-house group terminal instead of MAN ... Stansted T1! I'm not suggesting that is happening, but it might actually suit both parties very well if it did
The same thought had occurred to me Shed. Anyway, just a few random thoughts on Ryanair at MAN:
As LAX points out, it seems we are getting an 8th based a/c just for the month of August which certainly helps a little.
I’ve not checked again recently but I think Ryanair have just over 200 weekly departures a week from MAN in the summer. A minority, but significant, portion of those are with non-based a/c which avoids the early morning airfield congestion. Admittedly, these include all (I think) Dublin flights and perhaps all but one of Shannon services. 7 based a/c doing 3 departures a day all week (and for longer sectors it could only be 2) would mean 147 departures, at least 60 less than the schedule for the summer period. Someone may have a more accurate figure for flights with non-based a/c. While each non-based a/c movement may only offer a single extra departure a day compared with a based unit, it is a means by which Ryanair could continue to grow at MAN if there are terminal constraints early morning.
The additional flights from STN are not meeting demand from the North West. If Ryanair believe there is extra demand and potential from this region and had the aircraft available, is it conceivable that they may renew a stronger interest in their LPL operation if there are capacity constraints at MAN? Both Ryanair and EasyJet now have a stronger presence at MAN than LPL (it’s to the credit of MAN/MAG management that they eventually reacted and changed policy towards LCCs). However, MAN cannot be complacent and assume that the present situation will prevail. I’m not denigrating LPL but airports are in competition for business.
It’s reported that changes are being made to stand 49 on T3 with stand 50 becoming a bussing facility. Which airline(s) will be parking remote that makes this necessary (AA, US, flybe?) as I wouldn’t have thought bussing helped Ryanair’s 25 minute turnrounds. Depending on the scale, and of course remote stands being available, it could free up more stands on T3 itself.
Finally, I would question whether there is much spare space on T1 or even remote for airlines to move from T3. When you think that Easyjet have 9 based a/c, Jet2 in double figures and TCX, plus the overnight LH stoppers, I imagine T1 is pretty full first thing with quite a few remotes occupied too. T2 may have a little more space with the Monarch reduction and I don’t know what a/c TOM will have based.
I can only repeat that I find it difficult to assess how overall seat capacity will work out this summer. I'm confident there will be growth but the extent of that growth in my view is difficult to assess but the ACL start of season report will shed some light. And let's not forget that whatever seats are available, passengers still have to fill them.