Logohu - There is always gossip swirling around the affairs of a major airport. Some of it comes to fruition, some does not. It wouldn't be right to report such gossip as 'fact' or a 'done deal'. Playing guessing games would not be fair on people who may potentially be affected. If a carrier does make an unwelcome decision we'll all find out about it at the appropriate time, hopefully after any employee(s) involved. So I'm afraid I can't make a game of this.
The real point of my earlier posting was to cool the widespread presumption that MAN is assured of a swashbuckling Summer. S15 will bring plenty of positive changes but quite afew negative ones as well. The healthy jump in throughput we'd all hoped for is substantially compromised by Ryanair's apparent plateauing this summer. Afew short weeks ago we were speculating upto three additional based B738's. Now (it seems) they're sticking with seven based (no change). Big difference, especially considering RYR config and utilisation. They're not now going to offset the Monarch / Little Red / 'Others' cutbacks. That job will fall to the list of new entrants we've all enjoyed reading about lately. Net growth can be measured only after those withdrawals have been offset.
The possibility of a (prolonged?) period of stagnation by Ryanair at MAN becomes a major concern at this point. Ideally, one would like to see their growth momentum maintained and Manchester Airport do its utmost to facilitate that. Of course (playing 'Devil's Advocate' here), there is always the possibility that MAG may not be too concerned by the medium-term capacity issues at T3 if Ryanair don't mind basing new additional frames at another in-house group terminal instead of MAN ... Stansted T1! I'm not suggesting that is happening, but it might actually suit both parties very well if it did. Readers here may prioritise growth at MAN specifically; MAG may be content to incentivise growth by Ryanair at other group sites rather than invest in expensive short-term fixes at T3, frontrunning major redevelopment further out? Just a thought ...
The Ryanair squeeze at T3 is the most obvious concern to draw our focus at this stage. If it was up to me, I'd like to see fuel connections to 56/57/58 established as a priority to make these stands 'Ryanair-friendly' for 25-minute turnarounds. Plus a MAG charm-offensive to persuade a couple of other carriers to switch from T3 to T1/T2. I guess that EasyJet (nine frames this summer?) do not face the same issues if they wish to expand further within T1. Likewise EXS, TCX, TOM etc at their respective terminals.
Any thoughts on the Ryanair conundrum? Under any long-term T3 redevelopment plan, I just can't see a major capacity increase being delivered there in less than two to three years at the very minimum. Probably more like five years? Will we be stuck at seven based Ryanair frames until then?
Last edited by Shed-on-a-Pole; 21st Feb 2015 at 03:50.