Could it be, and by God I hope it is, that this massive cull of bases is a roll of the dice by NPAS? Designed to cause such shock and uproar, that the Home Office has to step in and bail them out?!?!
On the topic of predictions, here is mine.
In 3-5 years time police aviation will go out to tender. The whole shooting match, a/c, bases, personnel etc. One lump sum from the Home Office to provide air support for the whole of the country. The winning bidder will look at the NPAS operating model, with its southern bias, and deem it unworkable. There will then be a series of new bases opening! How will they make it work? Simply because they will be aviation experts, not bobbies playing at businessmen/politicians.