It's not rocket science
Umm, this is embarrassingly easy maths - so easy I feel kinda stupid for putting it here.
If people are rostered for twice as many days per month of work, and their average daily sickness rate doesn't change, then the monthly sickness rate will double.
Why? Because we don't call sick on G days or O days(unutilised) or Leave
EG
Ten work days rostered - average sick rate 3 days per month, approximately 10% sickness rate(1 in 3 chance it will be a work day). Twenty days of work a month, 3 sick days per month, 20% sickness rate! Well actually it is still "10% of work days" but from the company's perspective there are twice as many sick days being taken compared with earlier!
And of course I am totally ignoring the effects of disruption, fatigue, stress - planning on a short haul ending before midnight and suddenly operating through your WOCL etc etc which would increase that monthly base rate!
This was pointed out to a previous DFO - he didn't seem to get it!
Last edited by Numero Crunchero; 19th Feb 2015 at 05:37.
Reason: clarity