That a civilian organisation, with all the so called academic clout it espouses, really thinks it can conduct useful analysis is, frankly, preposterous.
Not at all, one that doesn't account for all the variables is. Its all about how they see the future. There are no shortage of retired military people of good caliber to provide input. Also no shortage of useless ones.
The metrics they use is the same problem we have with every thing else we are doing these days, colored by politics and personal philosophies.