As someone who has wholeheartedly been in favour of the proposed IAG takeover of EI, I am extremely pensive today in light of the ruling by the British Competition Authority (Competition and Markets Authority /(CMA)) on Ryanair's need to dispose of its shareholding in Aer Lingus.
Ryanair are appealing to the supreme court of human rights, challenging the CMA ruling on the grounds that ' Clearly the CMA's case has now been totally undermined by the IAG offers' (referenced from RTE news service online today 12/02/15).
Lets make some very large assumptions;
1. Lets assume that BA get to take over IAG
2. Lets assume that FR can challenge the CMA's ruling. (('Ryanair said the IAG bid "wholly disprove[s] the CMA's unsubstantiated claim that Ryanair's shareholding somehow prevented other airlines from merging with or bidding for Aer Lingus')) - from RTE news 12/02
3. Lets assume that Ryanair win and subsequently buy the BA holding, Slots go to BA, Ryanair then control EI. Comforts provided by BA or guarantees are great, but if FR got its hands on EI, there would be little in principal that the Irish government could do about said guarantees...
4. BA expansion of London route portfolio for long haul, exclusivity on LHR DUB and ORK and FR and BA exist in harmony... or something like this....
Completely unlikely or possibility?
These are huge assumptions and many dependencies to arrive that the outcome suggested, but worth considering in my view.
EI-BUD