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Old 11th Feb 2015, 09:30
  #162 (permalink)  
Bealzebub
 
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The regulator only has the power to regulate what is already enshrined in statute. Avenger has already touched on the reality. The evolution of the training industry, and the transition of those trainees into limited high tier employment, has been visible and obvious for some considerable time now.

Over a period of twenty years, the changes that have facilitated that evolution have been glaringly obvious. Some of us have pointed out those reasons time and time again. Nevertheless, there are a lot of people that simply ignore or choose not to believe the blatant realities of the evolution of that marketplace, and what it is today. I am not sure why that should be a surprise.

The burden of "training costs" was one that Twenty years ago most airlines were happy to shoulder on the basis that it was an investment they themselves were going to benefit from. The problem came (and I worked through this era) when individuals decided to avail themselves of that investment and then jump ship for their own benefit. The response to this, was to contract those employees, "bond" them for that training. That didn't solve the problem as the airlines still had the expensive (and sometimes hopeless) task of enforcing those contracts when the employee defaulted by choice. The answer to that was to shift the upfront burden from the employer to the employee. In other words you pay for the costs that put you in a position to do this job. If the employee then chose to default, it was only a minor inconvenience to the employer. This proved sufficiently successful to see it spread back down through both the employment ladders and the training ladders.

Airlines, that had traditionally recruited from military career changers, self improvers, and to a very limited degree cadets, also found themselves evolving into an era of new realities. Economic cycles rotated as they always had, but deregulation in the latter two decades of the Twentieth century, took hold as new, determined, and very serious operators attacked the underbelly of a very entrenched and established cartel. This happened as statute also swept aside a large portion of the working age and working time regulations. Senior pilots (usually captains) found themselves able to work anything up to a decade longer than had previously been the case. Growth notwithstanding, this allowed a large margin of breathing space to bring about a revolution at the other end of the pilot career market.

That growth came in the form of a massive expansion of ab-initio cadet programmes. Both the established players in this previously limited market, and new entrants provided a cost effective, monitored, and tailored product for the right hand seat. The "experience gap" that might ordinarily have put a natural brake on this expansion, was negated by the fact that those who would once have retired at 55 could now go on to 60 and later 65, thereby providing a decade of growth at the other end of the career chain. That was all the industry needed to revolutionise this aspect of the marketplace.

The cadets themselves proved to be very able and very cost effective for the industry. The attrition rate was tiny compared to the attrition rate for self improvers. For an industry now driven by cost, the writing was not only on the wall, but it was there in very large and very bold letters!

The squeeze was always going to be in the middle of the market. The ex-military and the ex-civil career changers/improvers, found themselves in a marketplace being increasingly dominated by ab-initio cadets at one end, and by experienced pilots no longer forced into early retirement at the other.

As the supply realities changed, so indeed did the reward (remuneration) realities. Another regulatory change that broadly coincided with these industry evolutions was the change to licensing requirements in some countries (notably the UK). A massive reduction in the requirements for a basic CPL (to recognise its aerial work role rather than airline requirement) saw floodgates being opened to a world of people that believed (and still do) that a CPL was their golden ticket to the right seat of an airliner, no matter how they acquired it. It never had been, it wasn't, it isn't, and it is highly unlikely it ever will be! However that is a reality that is lost to many people who simply close their eyes, stick their fingers in their ears, and simply refuse to believe it!

That is the potted history. The future is always by definition speculative. However, the current flow of the evolution (which has a huge mass of momentum,) shows no signs of changing course or slowing down. Airlines (employers) are increasingly driven by cost reductions. The transposition of training costs increasingly moves from the employer to the employee, particularly where those costs put the (potential) employee in a position to actually do the job. Employment opportunities (even at the upper tiers) are becoming significantly less well remunerated and increasingly seasonal in scope. The top tier airlines are finding themselves increasingly "at risk" and threatened by cost advantages available to their competitors. The supply of quality candidates from the airlines perceived quality sources of supply continues to grow year on year.

For a potential pilot coming into this extremely difficult industry today, the reality is finding an acceptable risk profile route that is likely to mitigate the huge costs involved with training. That is the reality for most, and the choices are fairly limited, extremely expensive, and not without significant risk.

However you elect to define "pay to fly," the reality is that you are almost certainly going to pay for your training one way or another. You are almost certainly going to find costs involved in your intermediate and advanced training. You are almost certainly (even if successful) going to find reduced rates of remuneration, reduced terms and conditions, and increased productivity requirements.

For the unsuccessful there is always likely to exist a "vanity publishing" market of "type rating" and "line training" programmes for sale, in order to satisfy that segment of the market. Pay to fly? certainly! But one created by a customer need as indeed most successful businesses are.

If you are lucky, and you have the resources and determination, there are still reasonably good career paths available. They are however few and far between, and usually expensive and not without significant levels of intrinsic risk.

If you are not lucky, made the wrong choices, or simply failed to research properly, you can always sign somebodies petition?
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