Turkey is a bit of a worry, could go either way. Most countries have competing forces in them, and for them to stay stable requires a lot of effort, with different means at different times.
As I said in a comment about China a while ago, as they evolve, some people get left behind, some move forward to quickly, this leads to a wide cultural gap, the modern media exasperates this. So the prediction is China will most likely have to get brutal sometime in the future to stay stable. So what about Turkey?
Turkey had the fast track to social evolution though much of the twentieth century, but that leaves a significant amount of the population with a less than enthusiastic view of the west behind. So maybe at the moment the best thing for them is an Islamist in charge, keeps the extreme conservative base at bay. But is he more than that, does he have other aims.
I had the same view about Russia and Putin, figured he was just playing up to satisfy the masses and try and pull the Russians out of their social quagmire. That appears to be sadly wrong. So what about Erogdan?
The common thread with all this, is the west, we are weak, we have basically set a bad example on how to not do things on most metrics that matter to these people.