Originally Posted by
papershuffler
.....
So, if part of the h/s had gone, some down force would be lost, the nose would go down, and the AOA of that wing would lower, possibly creating a spin. Does this fit the scenario?
Nope. Firstly, regarding spinning, a reduction in AoA will reduce the likelihood of a stall/spin, not increase it. (It would appear that had the crew reduced the AoA prior to the roll commencing, the result would have been similar; it would have hit the bridge, but probably at a slightly different - and maybe less survivable - configuration. They simply didn't have the altitude to play with, and probably not the required power to prevent it.
I doubt that anything the crew did made the accident more or less survivable. They were clearly out of options, and just prolonging the inevitable (as you do. Poor buggers.) (This is called ''stretching the glide''. It didn't quite work. It often doesn't. It may have set up - inadvertently - an accident geometry that made the impact survivable for some on board. Having seen the videos, it is not the sort of accident sequence one would expect survivors from. Those few were darned lucky.)
The accident sequence was already established; the roll to the left was merely part of it.
The aircraft was already committed to crash into the river/bridge prior to any power line contact taking place.
Appears a classic stall/incipient spin to me.