http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/...mendations.pdf
Other factors relating to design process considerations involve the changing pilot force. For example, operators and manufacturers believe that pilot experience and proficiency are declining globally. Worldwide, ab initio pilots are being introduced into transport category flight decks more frequently and operators report increased training loads and dropout rates. Operators report that the pilots entering the workforce have high levels of computer skills but some may not have the robust aviation background and aeronautical experience that current pilots have from actual flight experience. The manufacturers understand the changes in the pilot workforce but may not yet assess their flight deck designs to address these changes. In the interim, some of the proposed mitigations include proceduralization (by some operators or manufacturers) and increased automation of tasks and functions (by some manufacturers). Each of these mitigations has potential for unintended consequences.
Changes in new-hire pilot flight experience and training background from military and
civil aviation to collegiate level programs that overall has reduced the average flight time
but has increased the number of new entry pilots that have completed comprehensive,
highly structured programs that often includes experience in the advanced flight deck
technology.
Global aviation expansion and growth have resulted in a high demand worldwide for
pilots, producing a perception that overall aeronautical flight experience12 levels for
entry-level pilots may be decreasing in some high growth regions.
Modern aircraft system capability and reliability have contributed to a significant
reduction in commercial aircraft accidents. Commercial aviation is the safest it has ever
been
The demographics and experience of the aviation workforce will also change considerably.
Retirements and attrition in some regions and growth in others will strain the available talent
pool and challenge normal recruiting practices. In addition, concern was expressed that aviation as a career field is not as appealing as in years past. These factors are leading to a concern that a significant pilot shortage is imminent.
When entering their aviation career, the new generation of personnel is expected to bring high
levels of computer skills but some may not have the robust aviation background and aeronautical experience that current pilots have from actual flight experience. However, great improvements have been made in collegiate and academy training programs which include comprehensive, high quality, and structured training that help develop aeronautical experience. Future pilots will require improved computer aptitude suited for many advanced operations and automation tools, as well as a broad aviation experience and fundamental knowledge and skills, including manual flying, spatial awareness, decision making, and understanding of aircraft performance.
When these complex procedures are combined with policies that encourage use of automated systems over manual operations and monitoring of pilots to ensure that they comply with those policies, it may encourage pilots to over-rely on those systems. When there is insufficient training, experience, or judgment, this reliance on the automated systems can aggravate and adversely affect the situation.
One important potential consequence is that pilots may not be prepared to handle non-routine
situations, such as malfunctions or off-nominal conditions.
There are open questions about the appropriate level of proceduralization, including how prescriptive and detailed the procedures are, and how comprehensive they should be. Sometimes procedures are used as mitigation for insufficient pilot experience, knowledge and skills. As a result, vulnerabilities may occur because procedures cannot cover all possible operational situations and circumstances. If the operation is excessively reliant on procedures, the pilots may not be prepared for unexpected or non-routine situations. In addition, the LOSA data and interview feedback suggest that overly prescriptive SOPs may be less likely to be followed.