CCR ; I'd disagree about Belfast flights being cut. The base is now come of age and on the whole does well, AerLingus have a lower cost base than BA do. Axing BHDLHR would seriously put a question over the whole base especially in Winter, as it would be down to 1 ac.
BA and Vueling operate together on LGW BCN, no reason why BA would be opposed to sharing another sister airline market.
As far as I can see, the guarantee would not cover BHD, no reason why it would. All irish Government statements /comments refer to DUB, ORK ,SNN and even NOC ( which doesn't have a LHR link!).