So far - and I may have missed it - all the discussion has postulated a sudden pitch-up on encountering an updraft. Running some numbers on my calculator, I see that an aircraft at 480 kts, entering a 100 kt updraft, would experience about a seven degree change in the relative wind (equivalent to a seven degree increase on AoA) without any attitude change at all. Presumably this would result in a sudden gain in altitude and loss in airspeed without much sensory input for the pilots.
Is this a reasonable scenario, and could it have been disorienting enough to have contributed to a loss of control?
You have missed it.
Some discussion has postulated a sudden pitch-up on encountering an updraft.
These postulations have been time and time discredited by those who actually understand what happens when entering an updraft - ie the aircraft will pitch DOWN not up and the airspeed will INCREASE not decrease.
Any glider pilot will tell you have to try pretty hard to lose airspeed in an updraft.
The only thing that will result in a sudden gain in altitude and loss in airspeed is a zoom climb, which is caused by the aircraft pitching significantly upwards, as happened to AF447, and as also appears to have happened here.
What we don't know here is whether the significant pitch up was caused by a pilot pulling back on the stick, a mechanical malfunction, a sensor malfunction, or whatever else. Presumably the FDR data will tell us in time. But can we quit with all the updraft speculation please?