PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore
Old 21st Jan 2015, 17:09
  #2308 (permalink)  
Andrewgr2
 
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From what I have read, threading through the Cbs is an absolutely essential requirement if a scheduled airline service is to be provided in this part of the world. 99.99X% of the time flights arrive successfully and everyone is happy.

Now, let's assume that the pilots of this flight did everything right. It might not have mattered whether they were flying an Airbus, a Boeing, or a highly stressed military jet. History tells us that 'Thunderstorms are the world's biggest distributors of used aircraft parts'. Actually they probably aren't but you get the idea. The forces involved in extreme thunderstorm encounters can break aircraft regardless of pilot actions. The question is, what is the value of X such that 100-99.99X% doesn't represent more losses than are acceptable? Improved weather radar, improved training, improved flight planning, changes to FBW philosophies etc may all reduce the accident risk but flying - already just about the safest form of transport - is never going to be 100% safe, and no aircraft is ever going to be capable of withstanding the forces inside every Cb.

The investigation will no doubt do its best to fulfill its obligation to try to make recommendations that will reduce the risk of a recurrence However, I believe that for as long as airlines provide a flight schedule that involves threading through Cbs, there will always be a risk of accidents. If there is a risk, then by definition, accidents will occur from time to time.
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