^^ Good post...
My view (which is not based current knowledge), I freely admit.
I don't know if we will get an MPA/MMA this year. On the one hand, I cannot see where the money is coming from (I hate it when people bang on about overseas aid, NHS waste etc...it is so distracting and irrelevant). On the other hand, people in high places do weird, unexpected and unpredictable things. The case for a the capability is rock solid; even more because we are intent on maintaining a broad range of maritime capabilities by building the carriers - maybe that will win the day.
So I just don't know.
But unlike PA, I think this year is the end game.
2015 we have an election, an SDSR and it is five years since we last few on ops.
Bringing the capability back is ever more logistically and financially difficult. If it is passed up this time, when do we look again...2020? how on earth do you counter the argument in 2020..."well we've done without for 10 years, why do we need it now", when restoring it in 10 years would take a massive chunk out of an ever diminishing defence budget.
Fingers crossed