I am based at an airfield very close to Bidford, where this flight originated the previous day. I too have flown to the Isle of Wight on this very route on several occasions, sometimes stopping overnight. The route takes you directly over Popham and in the past I have also landed there as well as talking to Popham en-route. On occasion, I have had to wait until well past lunchtime for conditions to improve enough to leave IoW. On reflection I think it is human nature that there are conditions that exist in which you would make a decision to return but you wouldn't start an outbound trip, particularly if the forecast for the next day was the same or worse of if you needed to get back for something.
My understanding is that the pilot was not inexperienced, the Brize radar track the previous day shows him routing straight through the Brize zone, and the onward routing being straight at around 140kts (although not level). He would have needed a clearance from Brize Zone for that and almost certainly been squawking a code. I believe he was also an active paraglider/paramotorer and had built the Pioneer 300 that he owned before this as well as owning a flexwing microlight.
FBS's first hand report of conditions is of interest but of course they relate to conditions at that exact moment at that exact place only. It is clear from the METARS that conditions would have been variable en-route and the area surrounding Popham. I also note the report of the wind from the north-east (whereas it was more northerly/north-west in the surrounding METARS) which would suggest 03 as the optimum runway, the approach of which is over Black Wood, although when I last landed at Popham and this runway was in use, someone mentioned it was operated under the 28 day rule and was not the most used runway.
The whole incident is terribly sad and shocking, no pilot would put themselves, much less their family, at deliberate risk. We don't know exactly what happened although FBS knows more than the rest of us. I would only ask that those who are attempting to identify a 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle with only 100 pieces and declaring 'Mona Lisa' wait until the AAIB report, (even they may not have the 1000 pieces). Their report will be factual, comprehensive and professional as it always is. We should be mindful that in one, five or ten years time, the pilot's son will be reading this (and we all pray he pulls through unscathed) and those leaping to conclusions early risk looking tactless and insensitive, as well as potentially very foolish.