How many CPLs are produced in the US every year?
I have been looking at a lot of flight schools to begin this as a career. The more schools I talk to, the more it adds to this nagging question I have. Will there be a job for me after I get over one thousand hours? The irrational, "Flying is so cool" part of my brain says go for it a job will come.
The logical part of my brain says don't be a fool. By my count, the latest FAA advisory circular lists 44 Part 141 operators. If I conservatively estimate that each of these graduates 10 people in a year that means 400 pilots are added to the market annually. Who knows how many the Part 61 schools pump out. Yes some foreign people will leave, but that number is nominal. From the research I've been able to do on the BLS and other websites, industry job growth is much less than 400 jobs per year. I think schools now are too adept at signing students. They are getting too many people to join up. The only result I see from this is an ever-growing capacity for instructing new students.
Most schools have an enticement in their marketing materials about the demographic change that's sweeping through the pilot ranks now. They say all the Vietnam era pilots are on the verge of retiring. From what I see on the forum, that is inaccurate at best. With no FAA age restriction and (theoretically) better working conditions, why would you leave this gig? Even if you all magically left, operators will just starting hiring 300 hour pilots in droves? Not likely.
Now I know I will never get rich being a pilot, but I would like to get a job so I can pay off whatever I have to borrow. As an instructor flying 20 hours per week, the banks will have my a$$ in no time.
I am looking for opinions on either side of the argument -- to be or not to be. And if my numbers are out of line, let me know.
Thanks from a newbie. And sorry for a massive post.
Andy