Originally Posted by
Propduffer
All this information does take us much farther than what is found anywhere else.
Now we have a snapshot of the one minute and forty six seconds of time when it appears that control was lost.
The last FR24 data point was: 23:12:37 3.990 s 110.225 e, which is at (about) the same time that Lost in Saigon informs us:
06:12
- QZ8501 requests left deviation from airway. Deviation approved.
- Pilot then requests climb to FL380
- ATC asks pilot to standby, due to nearby traffic and to coordinate with next sector (Singapore)
Thus we can assume that the plane had converted its forward speed to vertical speed at or near the time the pilot was requesting FL380.
No, we can't assume that.
1) The aircraft was not cleared to climb.
2) Even if the aircraft was cleared to climb, jet aircraft maintain their cruise speed while in the climb. (at least the ones I fly do)
Because the radar screenshot shows the aircraft climbing without a clearance at very low airspeed, we can assume the aircraft was out of control in a very strong updraft.
What happened next is only speculation:
In flight breakup?
Aerodynamic stall?
Engine flame out?