PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore
Old 4th Jan 2015, 13:21
  #1180 (permalink)  
slats11
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: sydney
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I have read most posts here, and have formed the following take-home messages:

1 Air travel is demonstrably much safer than at any previous time - several recent high profile crashes not withstanding.

2. Air travel is becoming cheaper in absolute (not just relative terms). Its not just a LCC thing. I flew Qantas Sydney - LAX return for $1515 in 1990. I can get much the same fare on Qantas cheaper than this in 2015. Given fuel and labor costs are a large proportion of overheads, it is incredible that costs have decreased in absolute terms over a 25 year period.

3. The emergence of LCC have increased this trend, But it was happening anyway.

4. Commercial aviation is highly competitive, and many airlines fail. Airlines have little discretion over three large overheads - cost of fuel, cost of planes, and cost of borrowing to buy planes (interest rates). There will be some economies of scale of course, but other than this airlines presumably pay much the same for these three things. So when looking to cut costs, airlines can only look to costs of staff, training costs, and maintenance (off-shoring this as much as possible). Cadet ships and P2F reflect the fact that this is where airlines can cut costs.

5. In an increasingly high tech world, people have less understanding of the equipment they use. Whatever they use is increasingly a "black box" - whatever happens inside is a complete mystery. If something breaks, it increasingly needs to be fixed by a professional or else replaced. People have less ability to understand how things work (and they are persuaded they have less need to understand anyway as they are so reliable and nothing goes wrong).

6. Aviation is part of society and is not immune to trends in broader society. Airmanship and a thorough understanding of the aircraft has been gradually replaced by automation and SOPs and ECAM etc. At the same time, it is cheaper for the airline to rely on automation and SOPs, and not to teach airmanship and sound manual flying skills. So all the drivers here are aligned in the same direction.

7. Managers in all walks of life love SOPs as they create a level playing field in their eyes. A SOP can be read by a non-operational manager. SOPs eliminate "judgement call" as a defence for a decision made - non-operationsal managers always hate these as they are unable to judge a judgement call. But they can judge adherence to a SOP. So SOPs serve to dichotomise an individuals performance into either "right" and "wrong" - in a way that is accessible to a non-operational manager.

8. Due to reduced cost, worldwide capacity has increased dramatically. When you need to dramatically increase supply, quality can suffer. People who would not have made the cut a few decades ago now get through (this isn't just an aviation thing either). And everyone wants to believe that quality pilots don't really matter much anymore. The airlines want to believe it to reduce costs. The airplane manufacturers peddle this line knowing it is what the airlines want to hear.

9. On top of all this, some people here suggest a problem with Asian cultures and over-reliance on automation. They point to the presumed cause for this crash, or Asiana 214 at SFO (and overlook the western crews of AF447 or QF1 at Bangkok). I have spent a fair bit of time in Asia, and enjoy the culture. Maybe there is a case that the deferential culture at times allows small problems to develop into big problems. Maybe. But I suspect the real issue has less to do with the culture per se, and more to do with:
a) this is where growth has been most dramatic (and hence quality control is likely to be most problematic)
b) developing countries mean developing standards (as mentioned by others)
c) they have to deliver the product at a lower price consistent with the lower cost of living in this region. They pay the same for fuel and planes, so guess where the savings are achieved.

And I suspect that worldwide aviation has much bigger problems to address than different cultures in different areas. Because our similarities are greater than our differences.


Its all a bit grim. Particularly as bean-counters will keep pointing to number 1 (increased safety overall) and state there is no problem.
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