So from an aviation perspective, what do we think is actually likely to be announced? Based on the HERRICK drawdown but balanced against a planned 3 years plus on SHADER, what would you do as a politician to balance the books?
I'd have bet a lot on an accelerated GR4 OSD, but considering the SHADER burden, is that likely? Or can Reaper take on an increased ISR/CAS/AI role there to compensate? Does the Typhoon Force have enough capacity to mount an enduring AI det to Aki?
What about airlift; if we're staging out of Aki for the next 3 years, and we're committed to A400M, do we need to maintain the same amount of C17s and C130s? With no land forces committed to SHADER will we see cuts in helicopters?
Will we see Sentinel and Shadow persist? Will we see the rumoured P8 buy; is that more likely than most with a refocus to the UK over Afghanistan?
Mostly Devil's Advocate stuff; we all know what we'd want, and we all know we're probably facing more demands and more requirements than we'll get people and equipment to service. Against a background of low public support and awareness post-Afghanistan, and a likely lack of support for deeper engagement in Iraq, what stuff is safe?