That's looking backwards. History gives scant indication for time to command. At present, there are some 1150 pilots in VAA/VAI, just over half are SFO/FO/SOs; say 620.
Do the math. At 30 commands/per year that's 20 years to command for a new join. Maybe less, maybe more. At 50 commands/per year, thats 12 years.
The influence of VARA and VANZ complicates things. VARA still pigheaded in their demand for its senior pilots to go to the top of DoJ list, it ain't gonna happen. Current FOs at each group have the their command vacancies ring-fenced in their division, except the B777 SFOs who get B777 command by-pass pay in 2016.
New joiners will go to bottom of list with no command protection expectations in their division, is my prediction.
I'm sure that the industrial goal posts will be moved by those who seek advantage at the expense of others. Again.
Last edited by Anthill; 29th Dec 2014 at 23:38.