Electoral Calculus
Majority Sorted Seats
also has Angie Bray in Ealing and Jane Ellison in Battersea as being vulnerable.
Interesting analysis, but a needs updating. It has Alan Keen listed as MP for Feltham and Heston. He died, there's been a by-election, which means more recent data is available and not being used (the seat won't change hands). It's also in a vacuum where there are no UKIP seats........
As for Angie Bray, yes, she's vulnerable, but her constituency is visible from a right hand window seat when doing a westerly landing at LHR, not underneath, the proposed third rwy is also south of her constituency.
Jane Ellison is also vulnerable, but her constituency is miles from LHR.
And the flight path trials that have brought new noise to rural areas and angered residents have caused alarm and bulging postbags to several "safe" seats. If they are necessary for a new runway, they may be concerning quite a few members of the Cabinet : Gove, Hammond, May, Maude ........
None of those are remotely vulnerable (even if UKIP do well), all have huge majorities, Libdems in second place, and a derisory Labour vote.
As stated before, another LHR rwy isn't a sufficient important issue to unseat MPs, plus no decision would have been made by the election.