Originally Posted by
henra
Are you sure your Maths is correct?
The Chance for the second Event being the same Country is 1/150 (like for any other Country as well). And for the third Event it is again 1/150th.
So even after the first risk materialised with a first incident, the risk for a second one would be 1/150th and a third one 1/22500.
With 1,5 per year you will have to wait for 15000 Years statistically for such a triple event.
Right. That's assuming that accidents occur in all countries with equal probabilities.
However, Indonesia has 250 million people and proportionally more aircraft (and, therefore, incidents) than, say, Nicaragua or Angola. (And it is much more sparse geographically: Nicaragua, contiguous and 500 x 500 km across, could live without airlines altogether - in fact, its airlines don't even own any passenger aircraft with capacity larger than 60. Indonesia is 5000 km across and consists of lots of islands, it can't function without aircraft.)
Indonesia and Malaysia taken together operate 1 out of every 40 777's, 1 out of 30 A320's and 1 out of every 12 737's in the world.