I think I mostly agree with Mana.
I know a reasonable number of Americans here; some are trying to leave, many are not. Those that aren't, are they guilty of DUI, do they have child support payments hanging over their head? I don't know, maybe. Are there 200 guys with apps in at American? I doubt it. Where did that number come from? Any evidence to back it up?
China Southern? Been hearing about 'lots' of guys going there for a while now. Hasn't happened, yet. That doesn't mean it won't, but there's no evidence that heaps of guys are just waiting for the call.
Ryan Air? I've lost count of the number of people who told me about the 25 guys who resigned enmasse to go back. I know a few ex-Ryan Air guys. None of them know any of those '25'. The guys I know who left there to come here did it for specific reasons. To a man, those reasons still exist and none are looking to return.
The F/O who resigned, either during the upgrade interview, right after, or after being told he was being delayed by either three or six months, depending on who's telling the story? Again, heard the story plenty of times. Never heard a name, or met anyone who personally knows him. If it happened, good luck to him. It's a small industry and I certainly won't be burning bridges like that.
I have that same seniority list from last year with the same numbers. Significantly less than 5% have left in over 14 months. Those considering will now wait until May, hoping against hope for a big reward. Here's really what I see: a lot of guys staring down the barrel of a tough job that seems to keep getting tougher. We're like that proverbial frog in the water that keeps getting hotter. We hope in vain that the pressure will get too much on the company and they'll be forced to make things better, either better pay, better conditions, or, hopefully, both. We stare at our mates hoping they'll make the difficult move that will apply that pressure. Unfortunately, too few of us are prepared to make that move. Until that changes, it will just keep getting hotter.