I'm not sure there would be a reliable catchment of 'Armidalians' driving to TW. Anyone needing a connecting flight ex BN, more than likely, but if BN is the end of journey - very less likely.
Would you drive 1.5 hrs south to fly north when you could simply drive 5 hrs north and have wheels in BN. If you have business in BN, ARM via TW time savings equal just two hours.
But worst of all and most odd, Jetgo are only offering 3 returns a week for the first two months? Just enough time for QF, Rex et al to get their systems and hardware in place. These guys will be vacating this route almost as quickly as they started.
Bear in mind the TW Music Festival is a huge lost opportunity. A planned start date gets put back to 2 Feb. 50,000 visitors over 10 days. Say just 10% are ex BN. Say just 10% of them would consider flying. Thre's 500 pax or roughly 3% of the annual pax needed to make a dollar on this sector. After two years of planning RPT and you get that wrong, anywhere else you will have lost your job!
Meanwhile, logical opportunities are taking lower priority or getting none at all. The cost to set up a route must be substantial and if not likely to make money virtually from day one, why do it? Once capital is gone, its game over. Once a day of work is gone, you can never get it back.
At $189 one way as an introductory fare, it will not be difficult for the other operators to price these guys out of the market! Even Christmas eve TW-SY can be booked for $138 on QF. Non peak times and QF offers $85 one way in early Feb. $189 is not a special fare.
Wouldn't you offer $99 specials, fill the plane get the word out there and maybe make a go of it. For mine, I think the emotion of possibly returning to old territory to revitalise a former life may be clouding good business judgement.
I think these guys are holding out in the hope mining will fill their RPT routes (somewhere) and simply need a fill in to keep the show looking operational.
For everyone's sake, launch stand alone RPT, on routes the aircraft was designed for,on sector's where you'll have no/ little immediate competition (ala GLA) and treat FIFO as a bonus not a focus.