If IAG bought EI, there's no point in both BA and EI doing DUB/LHR, because from a regulatory/competition point of view, they are the same company. Same with BHD. KLM would return to DUB and possibly ORK because that code share would be toast. 24 EI slots combined with how many BA for DUB? 7? And how many for BHD? Between the 2 carriers we are talking well over 500 million pounds in slot pairs to the Island of Ireland. I can see maybe 10 being operated by EI widebodies from DUB, with the current schedule being maintained from the other 3, with UK competition authority and Irish government insisting on maybe 8 being given to somebody else, but who? I doubt FR would be interested, or BE. Stobart? No way. Cityjet....there's a thought..... but yes I think it's a dead cert EI would be moved to T5 in IAG, I mean Iberia are there aren't they?
LHR-BHD and LHR-DUB are the only routes with both BA and EI, so if any LHR slots have to be surrendered it would be for these routes.
So who would take it on?
VS have been burnt on short haul.
FR has stated that it will not operate out of LHR, CDG, FRA.
None of BE, Sobart, Cityjet have adequate sized aircraft, and can they afford LHR slots?
Only KL (EU open skies would allow it) or U2 look like contenders, but it’s a long shot.
So BA and EI get the slots back, and they may decide to consolidate on to larger aircraft where they each have departures times close to each other, and then reallocate slots, but not that many, as business pax demand frequency on shorthaul routes.
However, at this time BA is not short of LHR slots, it is short of longhaul aircraft.
T5 is full to the rafters and there still are some BA services operating from T3, Expandion would be needed. IB services are only on 1 route and at most 2 gates are required . Vueling remains non T5, residing at 3.
True, but would IAG want (a) the expense of operating out of 3 LHR terminals, and (b) the hassle of moving transferring pax between 3 terminals? Think there's a strong possibility that EI would shift to LHR-5, would they not find a way to accomodate it?