One other point I would like to put out there from the original post.
I'll use the turbo prop captain as an example, the pilot has about 5 - 10 years experience as a captain prior to joining CX, then spends 10 to 12 years flying with a multitude of commanders in an airline that where possible takes all the thought process out of our decision making on a day to day basis. We have CFP, CLS, RTOW, CPDLC, IOC and a multitude of other systems in place to do the decision making for us.
Part A is designed to cover just about every scenario.
We don't even have operational control of the a/c until the doors are closed..
So the experienced FO who is considered based on his prior experience to be a sure bet at a command upgrade has had a large part of his or her "prior experience" eroded away, and then expected to be able to step up in a few short weeks to be successful at the course.
Add to this the already mentioned simulator structure where we all know what's coming our way all results in an unfortunately high failure rate..
JY