From what I've read most OPEC countries can make profit on their oil as long as they sell it for $40/bbl +. The shale oil crowd in the US need oil above $90/bbl.
Shale oil fields are very short lived, 2-3 years as opposed to conventional fields. They also require massive amounts of capital investment. These fields coming on-line have created a short term oil surplus, which in a world which followed economic theory would have resulted in OPEC cutting supply. However, their strategy is to continue to supply at their current output, causing over-capacity and a drop in the price.
To add to this the speculators have pulled there $$ taking the price even lower. What next? A lot of shale oil fields will either have to stop production or take massive losses. Expect a massive hit to the US banking system too that has been underwriting the whole Fracking mess…
The result. Oil will swing back to above $100/bbl, the speculators will jump in for the ride and take it even higher… hopefully the airlines bank at least one year of profit before the **** unwinds.
As for domestic prices, well we all know that price increases come through the pump the next day, while price decreases take a few weeks as we have to wait for the 'cheaper crude to be shipped over'.