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Old 7th Dec 2014, 08:19
  #19 (permalink)  
spleener
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: HKG 'visitor'
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Numero, I think you're fundamentally correct.

One of the big problems when throwing [potentially extremely large] numbers around is our lack of numerical expertise and cognitive skill to appreciate the magnitude represented, and the consequent effect. As far as management is concerned, they are also shackled by the Dunning-Kreuger effect - ie they mistakenly rate their ability as superior and expect others to share that illusion.
[Now. I don't believe Pilots are immune either - a non scientific flight deck sampling would reveal that more that 50% believe they are in the top 10% of aviating ability ]
The problem from the management perspective: They are bad at big numbers, have huge egos and monumental sized vanity shields protecting them from their weaknesses, as they go about the daily tasks of misclassifying, underestimating others and overestimating themselves. They bring those cognitive resources and biases to forming opinions on a wide range of issues such as pay negotiations, fuel hedging, and the risk being killed by lithium batteries. Add the ideological filters and the realm of numbers become entangled within their belief system, representing what they wish the world to be rather the world as it is.
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