Slast
Ok, let's deal with your example.
The simple fact is that I don't know the systems in enough detail to know.
It's possible that it would have gone swimmingly, just like it is possible that another pilot on another day might have porked it.
As I have said before.
There will still be smoking holes.
They will almost certainly be for different reasons. Different problems will be tricky for manned vs unmanned.
This might come under the previously mentioned black swan events.
What is important is whether overall it is as safe but cheaper, or safer.
ie total death rate
I believe it to be likely that removing all the human error accidents will offset the rare/weird ones.
As I've said, I don't disagree with most of your points. They are all valid. The difference is that I think they are surmountable challenges rather thn stoppers.
....and yes, that is a very interesting article.
Last edited by Tourist; 6th Dec 2014 at 21:13.