PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - "Pilotless airliners safer" - London Times article
Old 6th Dec 2014, 04:00
  #277 (permalink)  
tdracer
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Everett, WA
Age: 68
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A couple of observations...

The current capability of UAVs is close to meaningless - no one is arguing that current technology would make pilotless aircraft safer. We're talking a future state (just how future being also open to debate). But computing power is growing exponentially. That means triply redundant systems will be cheaper in 5 years than single thread stuff is today. Project that forward 20 or 40 years?

The first 'pilotless' passenger aircraft isn't going to be a 400 passenger commercial airliner - it'll be a private 'bizz jet' general aviation aircraft (or even a prop), certified under far more relaxed regulations than the Part 25 FAA and EASA regs. The safety record for general aviation currently isn't all that great - orders of magnitude worse than the Part 25 counterparts. So you've got some businessman who can justify and afford his own aircraft, but doesn't want to either pay for a pilot or become one. You honestly think the idea of a pilotless aircraft - as safe or safer than the admittedly mediocre level of piloted general aviation - wouldn't be attractive? Sure, some will crash, people will die - just like what happens with all to much regularity in general aviation today. But the bugs will be worked out, and before long unpiloted GA aircraft will be way safer than their piloted counterparts.

HIRF/Lightning - REALLY? Fly By Wire and FADEC have been commonplace for 25 years - HIRF/Lighting are just as much a threat to FBW/FADEC as they'd be for pilotless aircraft. Further, I can't recall a single accident attributed to HIRF/Lightning affecting a FBW or FADEC. Yes, it needs to be accounted for, but we've already figured out how to do that.

As I said before - it's not around the corner, at least not by human standards. however, I've been working engines since 1977. I recall all too well the skepticism regarding FADEC - including people swearing they'd NEVER fly on a FADEC powered airplane. 20 years later they had conveniently forgotten they'd ever said that FBW was met with similar skepticism. Yet today, if you want to fly commercially on an aircraft that isn't ultimately controlled by computers, your options are going to very sharply limited. Look at the current Boeing and Airbus products - yes pilots are in the loop, but they are NOT ultimately in control - the aircraft is being controlled by electrons.

Last edited by tdracer; 6th Dec 2014 at 04:24.
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