A very interesting article on Flight Global, with the opening paragraphs setting the scene.
European defence forces are facing a “perfect storm”, and those in the UK are at its eye. So says Andrew Dorman, professor of international security in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London and a lecturer at the UK Joint Services Command and Staff College in Shrivenham.
The forces energising the storm are many, Dorman says, but he sums up the challenge as “ambiguous warfare in an age of austerity”. The “ambiguous” tag refers to the enemy not always being easy to identify; it may be a group rather than a nation and in a state of flux rather than being a recognisable entity. Since 2010, when the UK’s last Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) was carried out, the world has changed dramatically, he points out, and plans for the UK’s defence and for projecting its influence envisaged then look hopelessly inappropriate now. Finally, budget austerity completes the storm’s destructive power.
Further on in the article:-
Meanwhile, Dorman’s judgements about the existing FF 2020 in the present context are scathing, calling its defined force structure “an unaffordable, land-centric, top-heavy military designed to fail”. Personnel cuts at the last review were at the front line, with hardly any reductions at the one-star level and above, he notes. The Royal Navy, he believes, needs more destroyers and frigates but is getting two aircraft carriers which may end up with insufficient numbers of embarked aircraft, and it has amphibious forces when the need for the latter is getting increasingly difficult to justify. It is clear that Dorman would be surprised if the UK gets the promised numbers of Lockheed F-35B combat aircraft after the 2015 SDSR.
Seems to me that the thrust of his speech at a conference of the UK Royal Air Force Air Combat Support Group is very much on the mark (and that he probably will not be getting any Christmas cards from Army types).