@mg23
I'm guessing that, when it eventually happens, it won't come from humans developing software, but from scanning humans brains and simulating them in software.
That is precisely what Mr Kurzweil says is being worked on. He estimates that the reverse engineering will be complete in 2029. I think this is based at least partly on the rate at which the resolution of brain scanning is improving. He says that a great deal is now known about the architecture of the brain.
I don't understand it myself of course but he is quite a convincing character, essentially being an engineer. I have been watching few hours of his stuff on youtube:-) He has not yet set of my bulls**t detector.
The big thing that is very, very hard to grasp is that the rate of development of new stuff is accelerating and that there is no end in sight to that acceleration. Setting aside for the moment the religion of peace of course.
More Kurzweil.