Realistically, I think it is very likely that at some point in the near future an airliner on approach or departure will hit a UAV.
There are two factors that will affect the damage this will cause.
1. Size
2. Where it hits.
The vast majority of the cheap toys that are now available are less massive than the larger birds that the aircraft already have to deal with day in day out. (to give you an idea, a goose can be 9Kg. The cheap small UAVs tend to be <1.5Kg) Yes a goose or Buzzard will make a dent in the metalwork or possibly even take out an engine, but the aircraft is specifically designed to survive such a strike. Bird strikes on military jets at high speed and low level are a bit more dramatic, but at approach speeds <250kts (not many baby UAVs getting above that) not a show stopper.
Birds do occasionally take down an airliner, but almost always through multiple ingestion into multiple engines.
I feel I should point out that the sky is literally teeming with birds, yet we don't hit that many.
I suspect we will see a few paint scrapes and the occasional trashed engine.
The bigger toys are a lot more complex and difficult to get hold of, and just like a Cessna should need a license to operate, but don't get carried away with the little toys.
The effort it takes to get hold of and operate a UAV capable of carrying a useful terrorist payload is vastly more than the effort to get hold of an SAM in the current climate.
Why would they bother? Yes to bomb a target, but not to hit an aircraft. Its just silly.
Last edited by Tourist; 29th November 2014 at 07:52.