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Old 28th Nov 2014, 16:29
  #47 (permalink)  
Jimlad1
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
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TT - in terms of using Akrotiri, I would see this as a strategically very vulnerable move. If the Russians saw us using the base, chances are they'd apply enormous diplomatic pressure on the Cypriots to shut the SBAs - while this may be sovereign soil, can you imagine the diplomatic fall out if it emerged the UK planned to deploy the bulk of its nuclear capability in a foreign nation? Secondly, the site is very vulnerable to a strike - an early shot and you've lost your deterrent, end of. There are no dispersal airfields at all. Thats without considering how you move the devices around, get them to site, and move them back again for maintenance.

In practical terms, the V Force relied on around 60 airfields all in to disperse to in crisis to deliver approximately 60 warheads to the target (I could be wrong, but I am sure to be corrected!), and this was at a time when the UK was flush with airbases. Each of these needed a reasonable level of support and maintenance and a lot of manpower to keep it going.

To run a deterrent properly you'd need to reopen a lot of these airfields to maximise the dispersal value - stand by for incoming NIMBYISM as people realise their quiet country location is now a prime nuclear target again. Then try to find the airfields to use - we currently have a total of three airfields running fast jet operations, all of which are certainly targets in any reasonable sized exchange. You'll also need to consider tanker aircraft, as the extant fleet is busy doing other things - last time I looked the FSTA contract was coming in at about £10.5 Billion for 13 aircraft for 30 years all in.

You'll need a similar sized fleet and capability again just to support V Force 2, so where is the £10.5 billion coming from for new tankers?

The next issue is people - the RN is bleeding itself dry maintaining the right level of manpower for an smallish detterent to ensure there are no stores or personnel shortages on the duty bomber. To ensure 100% availability of a required number of aircraft to be credible, you'd need to completely revamp the entire supply chain, move a lot of manpower around and be prepared to increase manpower considerably to ensure you had the right people in the right place. Note this isnt just pilots, but ground crew, maintenance technicians, armourers etc - then you need to retain them for long enough, and keep the RAF doing its normal roles too.

Bottom line is that if you want to create a 21st Century V Force, be prepared to pay an obscene amount of money more than if you just wanted to replace Trident like for like.
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