It can't be too far ahead that it becomes economically unviable to aspire to be an airline pilot. The cost of training (approx £90,000) to get a low paid second officer postion, and in some cases Flexi crew contracts (only paid a basic wage when you actually work) makes the job of today's pilot almost slave labour.
The introduction of MPL courses which basically trains applicants to be computer operators rather than giving them a basic grounding in flying skills and airmanship, which in my opinion is a trade off of profits over safety.
As an example of this the MPL pilots are brilliant at controlling the aircraft through the automatics (autopilot & auto thrust), and handling ECAM, but it all starts to go a bit wrong once the autopilot is out and they actually have to fly the aircraft to land it.
That comes with experience and plenty of landings, but until then, as a line Captain you are effectively in a training role until they gain that experience.
So I wonder how many youngsters out there can actually afford to front up that kind of money to, in effect, not be trained as a pilot. Surely the realities of the job for new aspire-ees is plain to see once they start to look, and dispels any perceived glamour of being a pilot. But the new guys I fly with tell me there's still a queue out the door at training establishments which I can't fathom. There are much better paid jobs out there and the respect for pilots has been effectively killed by ignorant management and accountants to drive costs down.
Maybe BALPA should do more to advise aspiring pilots about the realities of the job? But then that would mean less pilots, which would mean less subs paying union members.......Hmmmm.
Is it easier to accept more members paying less in fees (because they are so low paid) or to stem the flow of cheap pilots for companies, increase terms and conditions for the rest, and accept a higher % from them. Interesting question.
The plague of the Low cost companies has turned the industry from just very competative back in the day, to ultra ultra cut throat today. That is having an ever increasing effect on safety margins, and I wonder where it will all end?