Archimedes,
TTr - under that model, how many weapons don't get to the target? And is it one weapon per aircraft?
78 or 79 of the 80 launched, with one or two weapons per aircraft, and assuming double targeting of each weapon by missiles with a Pk of 85%. No assumption is made on using an EMP to blind the radars- this is a conservative model, so all are assumed to airburst at 3900ft AGL to maximise the area of the 5psi pressure wave.
The RCS of the B61-12 is obviously not in the open source, so it is assumed that it is picked up by the GRAVESTONE at the time of launch. (This may well be wrong, but if it is, the benefit will likely be in favour of the attacker.)
N-a-B
Are you or have you ever been a member of either UKIP or the Phoenix Think Tank?
Ouch. Neither, Liberal Democrats and
CentreForum.
For a total of £37-45Bn, which is a tad over the programme costs I've seen
I should be clearer on the numbers. A fuller explanation is
here: We're deriving the capital costs from the £15-20bn (2005 prices) plus optimism bias based on the overruns of the first batch of Astute (+30.4%) for a range of £24.8 – 33.1 in 2014 prices.
HTH, happy to discuss.