I really do not see a logical correlation between pay and staff numbers, it is totally irrelevant to our pay debate!
Maybe not so STW, so lets look at some of the other mathematical facts.
The real underlying issue of the matter is the ability to increase staff numbers.
Do you think it is easy for them to recruit qualified applicants with the current package?
There has been a trickle of resignations, admittedly not a flood yet, but let's see what happens in the next 12 - 24 months. A few have resigned in NAM, and at least 2 very senior captains recently in Australia.
Aside from resignations, there's the unfortunate fact that (statistically) a few pilots will lose their medical each year.
And then the biggie - the retirement curve. By extending people to 65, they didn't get rid of the problem, they just deferred it. That happened 5 & 1/2 years ago, so does that mean the problem is in the background for another 4 & 1/2 years? I say likely not, because (once again using historical statistics) most people don't actually go to 65. Most go somewhere around the 60 - 61 mark. So, that wave is possibly about to start.
Add in the fact that the airline is starting an expansion phase. Yes, some of the orders are replacements for -400s & 340s, but the nett result is an expansion. They need to recruit to crew those aircraft plus anyone leaving.
Whether you agree with my figures or not, I'm sure you'll agree there's interesting times ahead.....