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Old 25th Nov 2014, 22:06
  #21 (permalink)  
Australopithecus
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Weltschmerz-By-The-Sea, Queensland, Australia
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Soup Nazi...

If you are under 45 you would have no adult experience of a recession, nor have a grasp on exactly how devastating is deflation in a primary sector like resources. China is in an announced period of credit tightening, which is depressing commodity prices below the cost of production. There are NO projects starting, and NO projects finishing after 2016

China raced years ahead of its own internal demand curve recently to build entire cities which are unoccupied. It has pretty much reinforced all the paving its going to do for years, and laid all the rails, too. All of that infrastructure is in inventory and will be for decades. The party appears to be over.

The economists respect reversion to the mean, as does nature. Before 1990 recessions used to occur every seven years or so. We owe the universe at least three downturns, so expect this one to be profound. While the resource sector is contracting, automotive and support manufacturing is likewise being hollowed out.

I wouldn't be talking like better days are around the corner. Absent more free money from the central banks we are screwed. With too much free money from the central banks we are really, really screwed. We are in an economic coffin corner, where either the thrust or the speedbrakes will end in tears.

Best,

BummerMan
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