President Jonathan seems to be almost totally ignoring the crisis in the Northeast of his country where 1.5 million people are estimated to have left their homes in the 18 months since emergency rule was declared. He's far too busy gathering the money and thugs he needs to support his campaign for re-election
Crisis Group Bodes Violent Elections in Nigeria Come 2015
NIGERIA is sliding dangerously towards violence before, during and after the February 2015 elections, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned.
In a major 48-page report titled Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence, published Friday, the Brussels-based global conflict think-tank observed that while Nigerian elections are traditionally fiercely contested, the risks of violence around next February's polls were particularly high.
According to the report, preparations for the elections are taking place in an increasingly volatile environment. It observed that while a two-party contest between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) is a sign of progress for the nation's democracy, the increasingly acrimonious relations between the two parties have already sparked numerous skirmishes among their supporters, and may turn bloodier once candidates start campaigning formally in December.
Apart from the inter-party tensions, the report noted that competing claims to the presidency between northern leaders and their Niger Delta counterparts, were also aggravating tensions around the elections.
It warned that: "As in 2011, clashes could erupt in some northern states if the APC, whose frontrunners are all northerners, loses the polls". It added that "there is similarly a high risk of violence if the PDP loses the presidency, particularly in the Niger Delta, home region of the party's candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan".
The report identified the Boko Haram insurgency and state of emergency in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states as also threatening the conduct of peaceful and credible elections.
It warned that if the presidential election is not held in the three states, it may "fall short of the constitutional requirements for electing a president, namely that the winner score 25 per cent of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 states, thereby raising serious legal disputes".
Other factors identified as compounding the risks of violence include the failure of the National Assembly to amend the Electoral Act, failure of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to produce a clean and credible voters register, and apparent bias by the police and other federally-controlled security services.
Commenting on the report, the Deputy Director of the International Crisis Group's Africa Programme, E. J. Hogendoorn, observed that: "As Africa's most populous country and largest economy, a Nigeria destabilised by election violence presents a very real security threat".
To Nnamdi Obasi, International Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Nigeria, "with only three months to the polls, a sense of urgency is more than ever imperative, particularly on the part of the government, and the election management and security agencies".
The group therefore called on the nation's leaders to take several steps urgently, to limit the risks of widespread violence.
The state of emergency is widely seen as a complete failure which has led to more people than before being murdered and Boko Haram extending its territory
Nigeria's State of Emergency 'A Failure'
Northeastern Nigeria's emergency rule imposed 18 months ago has fallen under heavy criticism as Boko Haram continues to terrorize and kill civilians. Lawmakers have rejected the extension of the emergency measures.
The news that members of the lower house of parliament rejected the extension of the state of emergency was received with great relief by the residents of the three affected states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe. Many of them think that the emergency rule imposed 18 months ago, in northeastern Nigeria has only worsened the situation rather than improving it.
"The state of emergency imposed in the northeastern states is of no advantage and of no significance," said Baba Abubakar, a resident of one of the northeastern states. "Some would say that the government is trying but those of us that are seeing the real picture of these things, have not seen anything the government is doing to curb the problem," said another resident Ahmad Aliyu.
Voting on a government request to extend the state of emergency on Thursday (20.11.2014), lawmakers rejected the move and described it as a total failure. Like many Nigerians, they believe that the state of emergency has damaged the security of the region rather than restored it. Speaking to DW, Hussaini Abdu, Director of Action Aid in Nigeria said that Boko Haram have killed more people, gained more ground and occupied more territories during the emergency rule than before.
Nigerian state of emergency could not prevent the abduction of more than 200 school girls
"Before the emergency, Boko Haram was operating mainly around Damaturu and Maiduguri... but since the emergency we have seen Boko Haram moving and occupying from 14 to 16 local governments in all the states," Abdu said. "Even the Chibok girls were abducted during the emergency rule," Abdu added.
A need for new strategies?
What many Nigerians fail to understand is why Boko Haram has managed to play hide and seek with the government's handsomely financed military force. Nigerian anti-terrorism act allows the government to deploy troops in any part of the country with the approval of the assembly. It also allows it to search and even detain people or groups perpetuating such actions. The government has however not been able to use the law in order to stop Boko Haram from terrorizing Nigerians.
Many experts believe that the extension of the emergency rule cannot curb the Boko Haram insurgency. Instead, the government has to make sure that the military has a clear understanding of the region, work more with local communities and equip the army properly. "They also need to invest in the military, boost the morale of the military officers. They need to increase those doctrinal issues around the military. Issues that will make the officer or soldier go to the battle willing to die for his country," Abdu added.
President Jonathan has been critized of not being able to attend security issues in his country
Lack of equipment has always been a challenge for the Nigerian military despite its heavy financial backing. Soldiers have often been ambushed by insurgents, giving the Islamists free reign to occupy more villages and establish what they are calling a caliphate. They have even deserted their posts and fled into neighboring countries.
Re-election is the priority
Although attacks by Boko Haram are reported in a daily basis, many Nigerians have the feeling that what currently occupies the minds of their leaders is the election rather than the insecurity. The country's President Goodluck Jonathan has left Nigeria on several occasions and is said to be mobilizing resources for next year's elections.
"People are killed or starve, the uncertainty is large - but the priority is still on the elections," Mairo Mahmud, a woman from Adamawa state which was under the emergency rule complained. "It is clear that for the politicians is all about power, not about people," she added.
On Wednesday suspected Boko Haram members were reported to have killed about 45 people in an attack on a village. The militants were seen entering the village in trucks. They destroyed houses and took food and some livestock with them. Last week, Boko Haram claimed to have captured Chibok town, home to more than 200 school girls who were abducted by the same group in April this year. The army recaptured the town a few days later.
Attacks by the militants have killed more than 5,000 people in a period of five years. More than 1.5 million people have fled their homes since Nigeria declared the emergency rule in the three states.