PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - CARDIFF - 2
Thread: CARDIFF - 2
View Single Post
Old 31st Oct 2014, 21:33
  #1604 (permalink)  
MerchantVenturer

Brunel to Concorde
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Virtute et Industria, et Sumorsaete Ealle
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I'm not sure which report re a Middle East connection you are referring to. Several weeks ago the chairman of the Wales Government's arm's-length company that operates CWL gave a press interview where he said that the ME was an aspiration but that CWL would be in competition with BRS with no room for both.

So far as the MEB3 are concerned most serious analysts that I've read seem to think there is not much likelihood of an appearance at either airport in the forseeable future. BRS probably has the greater market with CWL having the better operational capability but even put together it's hard to see anything coming to fruition for a long time, if at all.

Turkish to Istanbul might be a more likely proposition with the smaller aircraft likely to be used removing the BRS operational problem but if the WG can find a way of oiling the wheels then who knows?

The same probably applies to NYC although in recent weeks rumours have circulated that BRS might be close to achieving something. Their CO route to Newark operated for five and a half years until late 2010 and before the recession began to bite the passenger numbers seemed in line with what CO had said they were looking for before the route began. The snag was that the yield obviously wasn't up to scratch and by then CO had gained access to LHR (something they didn't have when the BRS-EWR route began) so it was no surprise that the BRS route was effectively moved along the M4 to join the other four daily rotations.

All this being the case many might be surprised at any airline being willing to have another go although the recession has abated.

CWL has a smaller and generally less prosperous core catchment than BRS so it might be thought it would have even more difficulty getting a NYC service. What it does have though is a state owner with a £3 million CWL route support chest appearing in the WG's budget, so some of that that might be used to tempt an airline.

Without substantial state support it's hard to see a CWL-NYC route being viable. In 2007 a major aviation consultancy produced a report for the Wales Government that suggested that a daily 172-seat Boeing 757-200 operating CWL-JFK would become self-sufficient after three years but in the meantime the WG would have to support the route to the tune of up to £580,000 per year.
MerchantVenturer is offline