There is a pilot shortage on the way...a massive one!
However it is a shortage of 3000+ hour guys. There are far too many guys and girls being fooled into parting with their cash by these big commercial flight school machines, sold on the promise of a glamorous life with the airlines pounding down the door to hire their graduates. A lot of them are totally ignorant of Type Rating costs and of course the true reality of the job market when you have 200h in the book.
The HOT(a retired airline pilot) at my old manor told me that people are coming off integrated courses with 200h and are in truth being over taken for the few jobs out there by modulars who have 50 more hours in the can.
People are people and a lot of people who fly for these McDonalds wages and terms realise soon after that the job is a job and while they may enjoy it the size of the aircraft and the tropical or other nature of the destinations do not matter. It's the flying they enjoy and there are better ways to make money with a few 1000 hours than heading off for days away from family and friends.
There is a shortage of people with 3000+ heavy jet hours who are willing to or have to jump through an airline's hoops to get a job.
Budget carriers are short of rated captains all over the place. If you are a SFO at certain airlines, living in the base you want with your family settled in and happy you are not going to be overly interested in a promotion to the left seat for not too much more money and a shift back the bottom of the base pile.
THIS is the shortage of 'lore.