Originally Posted by Ulric
It all hinges on the path taken between the 18:29 and 19:40 arcs. One crucial question is which direction the aircraft was travelling in when it crossed the 19:40 arc - E-W or W-E. The data doesn't tell us the answer to that.
We can take the view that the final major turn is bracketed by the 182815z observation and the cluster corresponding to two telephone call attempts around 1840z. The BFO for the latter has azimuth solutions to the south, whereas a risk analysis for the former provides strong support for flight continuing along on the track as it existed at 182212 depicted in the Lido Hotel radar photograph.
A game of overfitting rapidly ensues if an additional turning point is assumed to have occurred between 1840z and 1941z.