Engines,
Until we a) post good people into RM jobs for 3-5 years b) train them properly c) reward them properly then we will continue to deal with the 'bright ideas club' with the 18-24 month 2x OJAR cycle.
There is no crystal ball, but the cannon is a classic example of being selective with history and over-optimistic about the future.
"Say what you need, not what you want - state a requirement, don't point at a solution..."