15L - you're on the money.
320- I think you're getting a bit excited. VANZ has a lower cost base than TT, esp now under Vai. Anz and Virgin also have obligations not to decrease Tasman flying.
I think 15L is correct. You will see TT do some additional Fiji work to keep jq in their place and from attacking virgin from behind. Also a few Tasman leisure routes, so may Sind dud, Chc. Bne, ool. But any decrease by VANZ has to be put elsewhere on the Tasman.
TT likely to Bali also but in tandem with vai.