Posted the below on AvCanada and a couple other forums looking for input.
The way I see it, like everything else, it's a numbers game.
I believe, from the non aviation functions I go to, there is still the interest in recreational flying.
I constantly get the "I always wanted to learn how to fly" from all sorts of different people at non aviation events.
I also get the "I started to but..." fill in the blank from wife, kids, job to poor customer service.
So I believe the numbers are still there that want to be involved, of all ages.
I also believe the more the numbers slide the more it's going to cost and other adverse effects to all of us. Small demand = more expensive, less available = more expensive, etc.
Appreciate thoughts and comments though.
Anyway this is what I have found for information and my thoughts from it.
Informal Canadian Licensed pilot information:
Total number of licenses/permits in Canada as of end 2008
64,932/ n/a
Pilot licensing in Canada - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Total number of licenses/permits in Canada as of end 2009
..... n/a /72,819
Transportation in Canada 2009 (table A8)
Total number of licences/permits in Canada as of end 2010
65,081/73,153
Transportation in Canada 2010 (table A7/A8)
http://www.tc.gc.ca/media/documents/pol ... um2010.pdf
Total number of licenses/permits in Canada as of end 2011
.63,420/71,169
https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/policy/anre-menu-3044.htm
Transportation in Canada 2011 (table A7/A8)
Private Pilot and Permits
Total to end of 2010
..37,408
Transportation in Canada 2010
Total to end of 2011
36,587
Transportation in Canada 2011
Based on AvCanada forum polling information (10/2014) of 151 respondents
16% of all respondents fly recreationally only
17% of all respondents fly recreationally and commercially
64% of all respondents fly commercially only
3% of all respondents currently are not flying at all (excluding commercial flights as passengers)
Based on AvCanada forum polling information (10/2014) of 245 respondents
2% are 20 yrs and under
16% are 21 to 25 yrs
51% are 26 to 45 yrs
23% are 46 to 60 yrs
7% are over 60 yrs
Important notes:
- 67% of the total flyers are 21 to 45 years old (32% 21 to 30yrs/35% 26 to 45yrs)
- 30% of the total flyers are 46 and older
(Pretty close to the 2006 Statistics Canada hard copy numbers found only source so far)
My Conclusions:
- Available information is very limited and minimum 3 years out of date
- Total pilot numbers seem to be dropping based on limited information (2008 to 2011) 1,512
- Private pilot and permits seem to be dropping based on limited information (2010 to 2011) 821
- Only 33% of flying appears to be recreational
- 4 year trend (2008 through 2011) appears downward, largest drop in recreational flying
In my highly biased personal opinion
Your thoughts?
Tom H