^ For retention, this juncture is critical for the company. If not treated well--having lived the situation first hand -- the '500' inexperienced pilots will either leave or bide time accumulating their licenses/ratings and THEN bolt. This would be the worst possible scenario in that the company makes a large investment in someone only to have them leave for greener pastures when they're needed most. The actions that happen now will transcend any future monetary incentives for years to come. One could not write an enforceable contract to keep them if they didn't like their conditions at that point.
If treated well, folks will stay.
Couple that with the many experienced folks who also have other options (return to previous airline or start over with another carrier) and there's strong incentive to do the right thing. It's hard to believe (but not impossible to believe) that any company would act so against its own self interests as to destroy itself simply to assert its ego and authoritaaaaaay. Or that it's partners in profit would tolerate it.
So the cards are relatively good if enough of the membership can stick together and overcome its fears to do what's right. After reading several posts here and elsewhere I HAVE been somewhat stunned at how fearful some are and some of these are not the folks I thought I knew. This can be such a wonderful job--it'd be hell for me if I had the same outlook on life and I'm grateful I don't. But I'm not always the sharpest knife in the drawer.